The state-dependence of output revisions

Bruno Ducoudré, Paul Hubert and Guilhem Tabarly

Economics Letters, 2020, vol. 192, issue C

Abstract: This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns — and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.

Keywords: Gross Domestic Product; National accounts; Revision analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 C8 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Related works:
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:192:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520301592

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109223

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