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The state-dependence of output revisions

Bruno Ducoudré, Paul Hubert and Guilhem Tabarly
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Guilhem Tabarly: Paris-Dauphine University

No 2020-04, Documents de Travail de l'OFCE from Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE)

Abstract: This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns – and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.

Keywords: Gross Domestic Product; National Accounts; Revision analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C53 C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Journal Article: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: The state-dependence of output revisions (2020) Downloads
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