Hourly and daily models of active layer evolution in arctic soils

Zy Biesinger, Edward B. Rastetter and Bonnie L. Kwiatkowski

Ecological Modelling, 2007, vol. 206, issue 1, 131-146

Abstract: For models to predict arctic ecosystems’ responses to climate change, it is important to first predict soil thermal responses. However, soil heat-budget models are generally too finely scaled and detailed to couple with large-scale biogeochemical models. Appropriate data sets to derive simple models capable of predicting active soil layer behavior on a time scale appropriate to biogeochemical models do not exist. One solution is to scale a highly detailed, physical heat model. The fine-scale predictions of this model can be aggregated to generate coarse-scale data, which can be used to derive an appropriately scaled model. We develop an hourly, spatially detailed model of soil temperature based on well-understood physical and biological processes and driven by detailed data. Under a range of environmental conditions, the hourly model predicts active layer behavior. From these predictions we construct a daily model that requires far fewer data about the climatic, environmental, and physical conditions to predict the volume of thawed soil over longer time scales.

Keywords: Arctic; Permafrost; Model aggregation; Soil temperature; Climate change; Soil carbon (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:206:y:2007:i:1:p:131-146

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.030

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