Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A

Nicholas C. Coops, Richard H. Waring and Todd A. Schroeder

Ecological Modelling, 2009, vol. 220, issue 15, 1787-1796

Abstract: Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.

Keywords: 3-PG model; Regression-tree analysis; Climate change; US Forest Inventory and Analysis; Sitka spruce; Ponderosa pine; Western juniper; Lodgepole pine; Douglas-fir; Western hemlock (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:15:p:1787-1796

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.029

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