Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata model: An application to the dynamics of Chinese tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis Lour.)

Daqian Wu, Jian Liu, Gaosheng Zhang, Wenjuan Ding, Wei Wang and Renqing Wang

Ecological Modelling, 2009, vol. 220, issue 24, 3490-3498

Abstract: Spatial autocorrelation (SAC) is frequently encountered in most spatial data in ecology. Cellular automata (CA) models have been widely used to simulate complex spatial phenomena. However, little has been done to examine the impact of incorporating SAC into CA models. Using image-derived maps of Chinese tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis Lour.), CA models based on ordinary logistic regression (OLCA model) and autologistic regression (ALCA model) were developed to simulate landscape dynamics of T. chinensis. In this study, significant positive SAC was detected in residuals of ordinary logistic models, whereas non-significant SAC was found in autologistic models. All autologistic models obtained lower Akaike's information criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc) values than the best ordinary logistic models. Although the performance of ALCA models only satisfied the minimum requirement, ALCA models showed considerable improvement upon OLCA models. Our results suggested that the incorporation of the autocovariate term not only accounted for SAC in model residuals but also provided more accurate estimates of regression coefficients. The study also found that the neglect of SAC might affect the statistical inference on underlying mechanisms driving landscape changes and obtain false ecological conclusions and management recommendations. The ALCA model is statistically sound when coping with spatially structured data, and the adoption of the ALCA model in future landscape transition simulations may provide more precise probability maps on landscape transition, better model performance and more reasonable mechanisms that are responsible for landscape changes.

Keywords: Autocovariate; Autologistic; Cellular automata; Ordinary logistic; Spatial autocorrelation; Tamarix chinensis Lour (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:24:p:3490-3498

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.03.008

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