GIS-based modeling of the geographic distribution of Quercus emoryi Torr. (Fagaceae) in México and identification of significant environmental factors influencing the species’ distribution

María de Jesús Torres-Meza, Alma Delia Báez-González, Luis Humberto Maciel-Pérez, Esperanza Quezada-Guzmán and J. Santos Sierra-Tristán

Ecological Modelling, 2009, vol. 220, issue 24, 3599-3611

Abstract: The greatest concentration of oak species in the world is believed to be found in Mexico. These species are potentially useful for reforestation because of their capacity to adapt to diverse environments. Knowledge of their geographic distribution and of species–environment relations is essential for decision-making in the management and conservation of natural resources. The objectives of this study were to develop a model of the distribution of Quercus emoryi Torr. in Mexico, using geographic information systems and data layers of climatic and other variables, and to determine the variables that significantly influence the distribution of the species. The study consisted of the following steps: (A) selection of the target species from a botanical scientific collection, (B) characterization of the collecting sites using images with values or categories of the variables, (C) model building with the overlay of images that meet the habitat conditions determined from the characterization of sites, (D) model validation with independent data in order to determine the precision of the model, (E) model calibration through adjustment of the intervals of some variables, and (F) sensitivity analysis using precision and concordance non-parametric statistics applied to pairs of images. Results show that the intervals of the variables that best describe the species’ habitat are the following: altitude from 1650 to 2750amsl, slope from 0 to 66°; average minimum temperature of January from −12 to −3°C; mean temperature of June from 11 to 25°C; mean annual precipitation from 218 to 1225mm; soil units: lithosol, eutric cambisol, haplic phaeozem, chromic luvisol, rendzina, luvic xerosol, mollic planosol, pellic vertisol, eutric regosol; type of vegetation: oak forest, oak–pine forest, pine forest, pine–oak forest, juniperus forest, low open forest, natural grassland and chaparral. The resulting model of the geographic distribution of Quercus emoryi in Mexico had the following values for non-parametric statistics of precision and agreement: Kappa index of 0.613 and 0.788, overall accuracy of 0.806 and 0.894, sensitivity of 0.650 and 0.825, specificity of 0.963, positive predictive value of 0.945 and 0.957 and negative predictive value of 0.733 and 0.846. Results indicate that the variable average minimum temperature of January, with a maximum value of −3°C, is an important factor in limiting the species’ distribution.

Keywords: Spatial modeling; Geographic distribution; Genus Quercus; Quercus emoryi; Geographic information system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009000702
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:24:p:3599-3611

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.01.018

Access Statistics for this article

Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath

More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().