Simulating population variation and movement within fragmented landscapes: An application to the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus)

Todd BenDor, James Westervelt, J.P. Aurambout and William Meyer

Ecological Modelling, 2009, vol. 220, issue 6, 867-878

Abstract: As the human activity footprint grows, land-use decisions play an increasing role in determining the future of plant and animal species. Studies have shown that urban and agricultural development cannot only harm species populations directly through habitat destruction, but also by destroying the corridors that connect habitat patches and populations within a metapopulation. Without these pathways, populations can encounter inbreeding depression and degeneration, which can increase death rates and lower rates of reproduction. This article describes the development and application of the FRAGGLE model, a spatial system dynamics model designed to calculate connectivity indices among populations. FRAGGLE can help planners and managers identify the relative contribution of populations associated with habitat patches to future populations in those patches, taking into account the importance of interstitial land to migration success. The model is applied to the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus), a threatened species whose southeastern U.S. distribution has diminished significantly within its native range due to agricultural and urban development over the last several decades. This model is parameterized with life history and movement traits of the gopher tortoise in order to simulate population demographics and spatial distribution within an area in west-central Georgia that supports a significant tortoise population. The implications of this simulation modeling effort are demonstrated using simple landscape representations and a hypothetical on land-use management scenario. Our findings show that development resulting in even limited habitat losses (10%) may lead to significant increases in fragmentation as measured by a loss in the rate of dispersions (31%) among area subpopulations.

Keywords: Habitat fragmentation; Spatial dynamic model; Gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus); Conservation biology; Landscape ecology; Land-use change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438000900026X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:6:p:867-878

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.01.005

Access Statistics for this article

Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath

More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().