Predicting future effects from nutrient abatement and climate change on phosphorus concentrations in Lake Bourget, France

Andreas C. Bryhn, Cyrille Girel, Gérard Paolini and Stéphan Jacquet

Ecological Modelling, 2010, vol. 221, issue 10, 1440-1450

Abstract: Like many temperate European lakes, Lake Bourget (France) has suffered from eutrophication during the second half of the last century. Due to a remarkable restoration program, the lake has been recovering for the past 25 years after a massive decrease in total phosphorus (TP) loading. TP concentrations have decreased from about 100–120 to 20–25μg/L. Additional efforts are, however, still required to obtain a perennially sustainable good ecological status and model parameterisation of fluxes can assist in predicting future outcomes, especially in the context of global warming. In this paper, a dynamic model (MeroLakeMab) was developed and tested with the purpose to reconstruct the loading history of Lake Bourget and to predict TP concentrations during scenarios of increased temperature, decreased water runoff and decreased P loading. Simulations suggested that the historical TP loading decrease may have been as extensive as 88%. Decreases in water discharge to Lake Bourget at magnitudes forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would not affect TP concentrations notably, but marked concentration changes could, however, occur if decreases in runoff would have a strong impact on the TP loading. Increasing temperature effects on yearly mean TP concentrations in the water column would be very small compared to effects from changes in the TP loading. Predictions such as these could be instrumental for future successful lake management.

Keywords: Phosphorus; Loading; Modelling; Forecasting; Lake; Eutrophication (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:10:p:1440-1450

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.02.013

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