 A geospatial model of forest dynamics with controlled trend surfaceJingjing Liang and Mo Zhou Ecological Modelling, 2010, vol. 221, issue 19, 2339-2352 Abstract: This paper proposes a method of controlled trend surface to simultaneously account for large-scale spatial trends and non-spatial local effects. With this method, a geospatial model of forest dynamics was developed for the Alaska boreal forest from 446 constantly monitored permanent sample plots. The geospatial component of this model represented large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of validation plots which represented temporal and spatial extensions of the current sample coverage. The results suggest that the controlled trend surface model was generally more accurate than both the non-spatial and conventional trend surface models. With this model, we mapped the forest dynamics of the entire Alaska boreal region by aggregating predicted stand states across the region. It was predicted that under current conditions of climate and natural disturbances, most of the Alaska boreal forest region may undergo a major shift from deciduous-dominant to conifer-dominant, with an average increase of 0.33m2hayear−1 in basal area over the Twenty-First Century. Keywords: Boreal forest; Matrix Model; GIS; Diameter growth; Recruitment; Mortality (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:19:p:2339-2352 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.06.016 Access Statistics for this article Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier |
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