Assessing spatial uncertainty of the Portuguese fire risk through direct sequential simulation

R.M. Durão, M.J. Pereira, C. Branquinho and A. Soares

Ecological Modelling, 2010, vol. 221, issue 1, 27-33

Abstract: Forest fires have a significant economic, social, and environmental impact in Portugal. For that its fire risk was assessed through Bayes Formalism, where the main component of the risk of fire was assessed by the conditional probability of fire I(u,t) given a class of the daily severity rating (DSR) for a specific period of time—P[I(u,t)|R(u,t)]. The evaluation of this a posterior probability, P[I(u,t)|R(u,t)], was based on the update of marginal local probability of fire in each chosen region u (Durão, 2006).

Keywords: Risk of fire; Direct sequential simulation; Spatial uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:1:p:27-33

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.004

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