Establishment of Markov successional model and its application for forest restoration reference in Southern China

Shao-Lin Peng, Yu-Ping Hou and Bao-Ming Chen

Ecological Modelling, 2010, vol. 221, issue 9, 1317-1324

Abstract: Forest succession is the base of establishing restoration reference which plays an important role in forest restoration and restoration estimation. The study presented the establishment of a Markov successional model (MSM) and its application to restoration reference in lower subtropical forest in China. The compositions of successional system in MSM were divided into three species types: pioneering pine trees, heliophytic trees and mesophytic trees. The successional system was divided into three subsystems: early successional stage, mid-successional stage and late-successional stage. Based on the site survey on the changes in the species and their individuals in 25 years, the transition matrices in various subsystems were determined. The predicted results were used to establish the restoration reference of the vegetation restoration in lower subtropical China. According to the ecological restoration reference established in this study, it would take 150 years for the forest to change from pioneer to mature communities in the region. Successional change of tree composition was forecast by the model, and the scenario forecast by the model reflects the actual conditions observed through 52 years of long-term permanent site research. The restoration experience in the region matches the forecast results. The application of a restoration reference model indicates that forest restoration can be accelerated by taking measures which change forest structure. The above results imply that a restoration reference established on the rule of regional forest succession could be very useful not only in directing, but also in assessing and managing regional forest restoration. Previously, one “ideal reference ecosystem” was used as a restoration reference in all correlative studies. In this study, the restoration “process” was used as the restoration reference.

Keywords: Markov model; Forest succession; Restoration reference; Lower subtropical (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:9:p:1317-1324

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.01.016

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