Modelling the effects of ‘coastal’ acidification on copper speciation

Russell Richards, Milani Chaloupka, Marcello Sanò and Rodger Tomlinson

Ecological Modelling, 2011, vol. 222, issue 19, 3559-3567

Abstract: We present here a copper speciation model that accounts for the long-term (‘coastal-acidification’) and short-term (daily and seasonal variation) variability in water pH and water temperature. The developed model is applied to a sub-tropical estuary (Moreton Bay, Australia) at a one hundred year time scale so that outputs are consistent with climate change projections. The model predicts that the mean cupric ion concentration (Cu2+) in the estuary will increase by 115% over the next 100 years as a result of the projected decrease in pH and increase in water temperature. Through calibration, the estimated concentration of copper-complexing dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the estuary is found to be 22.5nM. An increase in the concentration of Cu2+, which is the most toxic and bioavailable form of copper, has implications for ecosystem health and may have a negative effect on the detoxifying capacity of DOM. Models that provide a framework for coupling biological, chemical and physical processes are important for providing a holistic perspective of coastal systems, especially for better understanding a system within the context of climatic and non-climatic drivers.

Keywords: Ocean acidification; Copper speciation; Stochastic model; Coastal waters; Moreton Bay (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:222:y:2011:i:19:p:3559-3567

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.08.017

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