Future distribution modelling: A stitch in time is not enough

Philippe A. Stankowski and William H. Parker

Ecological Modelling, 2011, vol. 222, issue 3, 567-572

Abstract: The last two decades have seen an increasing number of studies assessing the impact of climate change upon biodiversity. A central assumption underpinning research into the potential future habitat of terrestrial biota is that species are presently in equilibrium with their environments and that quantitative climate models adequately represent the distribution of species. Recently, many alarming predictions have emerged concerning the extinction and redistribution of species. Here, we show that even large-scale models of the climatic niche dimensions of species are temporally variable. Distributional models were developed for Salix (willow) species occurring in the province of Ontario, Canada, using three historical climate data sets. Although historical data very accurately represented the distributions of willows, the inherent variability within the models of species based on different periods greatly influenced the direction and magnitude of projected distributional change. We expose a fundamental uncertainty with respect to predicting the responses of species to climate change.

Keywords: Climate change; Extinction risk; Extirpation; Logistic regression; Salix (willow); Species/climate equilibrium; Species distribution modelling; Redistribution; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380010005788
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:222:y:2011:i:3:p:567-572

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.10.018

Access Statistics for this article

Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath

More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().