A simulation modelling approach to forecast establishment and spread of Bactrocera fruit flies

J.J. García Adeva, J.H. Botha and M. Reynolds

Ecological Modelling, 2012, vol. 227, issue C, 93-108

Abstract: This paper reports on the design, construction and testing of a novel simulation model for the establishment and spread of fruit fly. The model permits the investigation of spatio-temporal development of a fruit fly outbreak under variable environmental conditions and taking account of the location, availability and suitability of preferred food, and of the existence of obstacles to spread. Implementation of the simulator is designed to make it suitable for use at various levels of outbreak management and biosecurity. Initial efforts at validating the predictions against actual historical outbreak data indicate that the simulator could be an useful tool to support decision making.

Keywords: Simulation modelling; Spatio-temporal model; Biosecurity management; Australia; Bactrocera fruit fly; Verification; Validation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:227:y:2012:i:c:p:93-108

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.11.026

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