Eliciting expert knowledge to inform landscape modeling of conservation scenarios

Jessica Price, Janet Silbernagel, Nicholas Miller, Randy Swaty, Mark White and Kristina Nixon

Ecological Modelling, 2012, vol. 229, issue C, 76-87

Abstract: Conservation and land management organizations such as The Nature Conservancy are developing strategies to distribute conservation efforts over larger areas. Relative to fee-simple protection efforts, strategies that allow ecologically sustainable timber harvest and recreation activities, such as working forest conservation easements, should yield greater socioeconomic benefits (ecosystem services) with less investment per area without significantly compromising the conservation of biodiversity (ecological targets). At the same time, climate change may profoundly influence forest resilience to management strategies in the coming century. As a result, there are many possible scenarios for the future of our forests and significant uncertainty for practitioners and decision makers. Yet, monitoring efforts aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of conservation strategies span decades or longer, leading to a lag in knowledge transfer and delayed adaptive management.

Keywords: Scenario analysis; Spatial narratives; Conservation effectiveness; Ecosystem services; Landscape change; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:229:y:2012:i:c:p:76-87

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.09.010

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