Bayesian comparison of six different temperature-based budburst models for four temperate tree species

Yongshuo H. Fu, Matteo Campioli, Marcel Van Oijen, Gaby Deckmyn and Ivan A. Janssens

Ecological Modelling, 2012, vol. 230, issue C, 92-100

Abstract: Phenology models are tools to analyze changes in the timing and duration of the growing season. During the past three decades different budburst models have been developed, but, so far, no consensus model has been found to accurately predict budburst date across different tree species. The aim of this study was to estimate the performance of six different temperature-driven models of leaf budburst (thermal time, thermal period fixed, sequential, parallel, alternating, unified) for four temperate tree species in Belgium (birch, chestnut, oak, beech). The models were parameterized using a Bayesian approach. The performance of these models was compared using Bayesian model comparison (BMC) and root mean square error (RMSE).

Keywords: Temperate deciduous forest species; Phenology model; Bayesian model probability; Budburst (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:230:y:2012:i:c:p:92-100

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.01.010

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