Effects of hunting, fishing and climate change on the Hudson Bay marine ecosystem: II. Ecosystem model future projections

Carie Hoover, Tony Pitcher and Villy Christensen

Ecological Modelling, 2013, vol. 264, issue C, 143-156

Abstract: Simulations testing the future impacts of harvest and climate change to the Hudson Bay marine ecosystem were created utilizing an existing Ecopath with Ecosim model (Hoover et al., 2013). Building on past simulations depicting known changes to the region, a suite of future scenarios was constructed to include a variety of climate change and harvest levels. Previously identified ecosystem shifts favoring pelagic species (zooplankton, planktivorous fish) over benthic species (benthos, benthic feeding fish), are further exaggerated under future climate scenarios. Environmental forcing was incorporated to mimic the declines in sea ice, and increases in temperature causing shifts in the food web from an ice algae–benthos–benthic fish pathway to a spring bloom–zooplankton–planktivorous fish dominated ecosystem. Future simulations indicate some stocks are unable to sustain current harvest levels until the end of the future simulations (2069), and may be extirpated (narwhal, eastern Hudson Bay beluga, polar bears, and walrus). Larger populations of marine mammals (ringed seals and western Hudson Bay beluga) are identified to increase in biomass even under extreme harvest and climate scenarios (a high future climate scenario coupled with a doubling in harvest rates). Harvest mortality is highlighted as an important stressor for some marine mammal stocks and should be investigated further when setting future harvest or conservation targets.

Keywords: Ecopath with Ecosim; Hudson Bay; Ecosystem modelling; Hunting; Fishing; Climate change; Cumulative impacts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013000379
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:264:y:2013:i:c:p:143-156

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.01.010

Access Statistics for this article

Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath

More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().