Deriving simple predictions from complex models to support environmental decision-making
Richard A. Stillman,
Kevin A. Wood and
John D. Goss-Custard
Ecological Modelling, 2016, vol. 326, issue C, 134-141
Abstract:
Recent decades have seen great advances in ecological modelling and computing power, enabling ecologists to build increasingly detailed models to more accurately represent ecological systems. To better inform environmental decision-making, it is important that the predictions of these models are expressed in simple ways that are straightforward for stakeholders to comprehend and use. One way to achieve this is to predict threshold values for environmental perturbations (e.g. climate change, habitat modification, food loss, sea level rise) associated with negative impacts on individuals, populations, communities or ecosystems. These thresholds can be used by stakeholders to inform management and policy. In this paper we demonstrate how this approach can use individual-based models of birds, their prey and habitats, to provide the evidence-base for coastal bird conservation and shellfishery management. In particular, we show how such models can be used to identify threshold values for perturbations of food abundance that can impact negatively on bird populations. We highlight how environmental thresholds could be used more widely to inform management of species and habitats under environmental change.
Keywords: Agent-based models; Communication; Decision support tools; Environmental management and policy; Individual-based models; Prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015001659
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:326:y:2016:i:c:p:134-141
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.014
Access Statistics for this article
Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath
More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().