Driver-system state interaction in regime shifts: A model study of desertification in drylands

Ning Chen and Xin-ping Wang

Ecological Modelling, 2016, vol. 339, issue C, 1-6

Abstract: An ecosystem may abruptly switch into a contrasting stable state at a critical threshold under the effect of external drivers, a phenomenon called regime shifts. However, drivers are generally assumed to be independent of system states, and thus associated driver-system state interaction is largely ignored when studying regime shifts. With dryland ecosystems as study objective, this study used a mean field model with drift potential as driver to investigate the influences of driver-system state interaction on dynamics of regime shifts. Our results showed following three aspects of influences of the interaction. (1) The interaction pushed the equilibria of regime shifts as a whole into higher drift potential, especially for the forward path. Under annual rainfall of 150mm, 300mm and 500mm, tipping points of the upper branches moved forward 140VU, 151VU and 152VU with strength of the interaction of 200VU relative to these with strength of the interaction of 0VU, respectively. (2) The interaction could expand the bi-stability region of regime shifts in driver space, e.g., from 125VU (annual rainfall of 150mm), 181VU (annual rainfall of 300mm) and 209VU (annual rainfall of 500mm) under the interaction of 0VU up to 145VU, 257VU and 290VU under the interaction of 200VU, respectively. (3) The interaction might repel ecosystems away from the middle range of system states. These results suggest that the driver-system state interaction should be considered in the studies of regime shifts, and thus to better understand, predict and combat desertification in practice.

Keywords: Desertification; Dryland ecosystems; Drift potential; Regime shift; Tipping point; Bi-stability region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:339:y:2016:i:c:p:1-6

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.006

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