A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change

Dongya Liu, Xinqi Zheng, Chunxiao Zhang and Hongbin Wang

Ecological Modelling, 2017, vol. 350, issue C, 1-10

Abstract: The integration of a system dynamics (SD) model, a cellular automata (CA) model, and a Geographic Information System (GIS) is an important topic in the temporal and spatial simulation of land-use changes. Based on many previous studies, the temporal–spatial dynamics method (TSDM) has been proposed as a research framework that removes the limitations of using loosely coupled SD–CA–GIS. In this study, TSDM was successfully implemented in the NetLogo platform. The results show that: (1) Integration SD–CA–GIS based on grids leads to the seamless implementation of real-time data exchange among SD, CA, and GIS; (2) The temporal–spatial dynamic mechanisms can be represented using common time steps in SD–CA–GIS, and TSDM can be used for spatial visualization; and (3) The model accuracy can be improved by extending the CA transition rules with SD. The land-use patterns for 2000, 2010, and 2016 in Beijing, China, were simulated to test the TSDM implementation, and the simulation accuracies were 83.75%, 80.98%, and 77.40%, respectively. The results indicate that TSDM achieves a much better accuracy than conventional SD–CA–GIS coupled models, and is a more practical approach to simulate land-use change.

Keywords: Land-use change simulation; Temporal–spatial dynamics method; Cellular automata model; System dynamics model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:350:y:2017:i:c:p:1-10

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.005

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