Predicting the effects of manual crayfish removal on California newt persistence in Santa Monica Mountain streams

William R. Milligan, Marjorie T. Jones, Lee B. Kats, Timothy A. Lucas and Courtney L. Davis

Ecological Modelling, 2017, vol. 352, issue C, 139-151

Abstract: We construct a hybrid, stage-structured mathematical model to study whether trapping of the invasive predatory crayfish Procambarus clarkii can prevent local extinctions of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern native to Santa Monica Mountain streams. Specifically, we numerically and analytically determine under what conditions trapping can drive the crayfish population size to zero. We observe the persistence or the time to extinction for newt populations under corresponding trapping scenarios. No simulations allow for long-term coexistence of newts and crayfish, although multiple scenarios delay newt extinction by several years in the presence of crayfish. We predict that crayfish extinction and newt persistence become more likely as the quantity of trapping resources, frequency of trapping implementation, and susceptibility of the crayfish population to trapping increases. We quantify the effectiveness of different crayfish trapping regimes at delaying the time until the newt population goes extinct. Predictions made with our model inform restorative efforts and crayfish management.

Keywords: Discrete mathematical model; Invasive species; Amphibian decline; Crayfish management; Taricha torosa; Procambarus clarkii (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380016302988
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:352:y:2017:i:c:p:139-151

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.014

Access Statistics for this article

Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath

More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().