An Atlantis model of the southern Benguela upwelling system: Validation, sensitivity analysis and insights into ecosystem functioning

Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Kevern Cochrane and Elizabeth A. Fulton

Ecological Modelling, 2017, vol. 355, issue C, 49-63

Abstract: Ecosystem models are valuable tools for evaluating the effects of different environmental stressors on an ecosystem and to increase system understanding. The Atlantis modelling framework is an end-to-end model that includes information and processes from the abiotic environment to the human component of a system. An application of Atlantis for the Benguela and Agulhas Currents was updated and validated against time series of biomass and catch (1990–2013). Five univariate skill metrics were used to evaluate model performance of biomass data of selected species. A sensitivity analysis, focused on the growth rate of small and large phytoplankton and large zooplankton, was conducted to evaluate the influence of these parameters on model outputs. A total of 26 alternative model parameterisations based on a variation of ±20% around the growth parameter of the selected groups were compared to the baseline model. Skill metrics suggest that the model captures the main emergent properties of the southern Benguela, the magnitude and trends in biomass and catch of most modelled groups. Large variations in biomass were observed among the sensitivity runs compared to the baseline. The most marked differences in relative biomass among runs seem to be attributed to changes in the growth rate of large zooplankton. The Atlantis model presented here has the capability to be used as a tool to provide strategic information for fisheries management purposes in the southern Benguela system.

Keywords: Ecosystem modelling; Southern Benguela; Atlantis; Skill assessment; Sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380016305518
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:355:y:2017:i:c:p:49-63

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.04.009

Access Statistics for this article

Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath

More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().