Sensitivity of WOFOST-based modelling solutions to crop parameters under climate change

Carlo Gilardelli, Roberto Confalonieri, Giovanni Alessandro Cappelli and Gianni Bellocchi

Ecological Modelling, 2018, vol. 368, issue C, 1-14

Abstract: The formalization of novel equations explicitly modelling the impact of extreme weather events into the crop model WOFOST (EMS: existing modelling solution; MMS: modified modelling solution) is proposed as a way to reduce the uncertainty in estimations of crop yield. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed to assess the effect of changing parameters values on the yield simulated by the model (both EMS and MMS) for different crops (winter and durum wheat, winter barley, maize, sunflower) grown under a variety of conditions (including future climate realisations) in Europe. A two-step SA was performed using global techniques: the Morris screening method for qualitative ranking of parameters was first used, followed by the eFAST variance-based method, which attributes portions of variance in the model output to each parameter.

Keywords: Climate scenarios; Crop parameters; Crop yield; e-FAST method; Extreme weather events; Morris’ method; Sensitivity analysis; WOFOST (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:368:y:2018:i:c:p:1-14

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.11.003

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