 Modelling approach for crafting environmental regulations under deep uncertainty: Whale watching in Ojo de liebre, MexicoEmilio Rodríguez-Izquierdo, Yosune Miquelajauregui, Pablo Padilla and Luis A Bojórquez-Tapia Ecological Modelling, 2019, vol. 408, issue C, - Abstract: Policy-making to protect threatened species implies dealing with uncertainty and ignorance. Conservation management of the Eastern gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) population through the regulation of whale watching in the lagoon Ojo de Liebre, Mexico, is a useful example of policy-making challenged by lack of scientific knowledge regarding the negative long-term effects of whale watching. We present a pragmatic approach to provide Mexican authorities the technical information they need to justify the establishment of a maximum number of boats under conditions of deep uncertainty. Operationally, our approach combines system dynamics modelling, to simulate the boats’ impact on the breeding habitat, with ecological risk assessment, to determine the probability of crossing a critical ecological threshold, which is associated to a risk of severely reducing the gray whale abundance in the lagoon. Thus, our approach addresses the issue of establishing a legal maximum number of boats to protect threatened species. Keywords: Whale watching; Deep uncertainty; System dynamics modelling; Conservation planning (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:408:y:2019:i:c:8 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108731 Access Statistics for this article Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier |
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