Basic reproduction number of Lyme disease spirochaetes – modelling various genospecies-host associations in Central Europe

Sina Wedekind-Grunert, Boris Schröder and Dania Richter

Ecological Modelling, 2019, vol. 411, issue C

Abstract: In order to analyse the efficiency of the transmission cycles of six Lyme disease genospecies and diverse potential reservoir hosts in Central Europe, we modelled each possible genospecies-host relationship using a next-generation-matrix approach. In particular, we determined the basic reproduction number R0 of any combination of each genospecies and various species of rodents, birds, and lizards. Based on a thorough literature analysis, we parameterized the model with field-derived and laboratory-derived values. Although R0 of Borrelia afzelii varied widely with the rodent species analysed, the association of this genospecies with rodents overall reached higher R0 values than the association of B. garinii or B. valaisiana with birds or of B. lusitaniae with lizards. For such well-adapted combinations of genospecies and host species, the survival probability from larva to nymphs and the parameters relevant for horizontal transmission most strongly influenced R0. The model differentiated the transmission efficiency of the two ubiquitous genospecies infecting rodents, B. afzelii and B. burgdorferi s.s. and emphasized differences between experimental and field-derived observations. It appears that the fraction of blood meals that larvae take on particular omnipresent host species influences the local proportion of each of the ubiquitous genospecies - B. afzelii, B. garinii and B. valaisiana - in questing nymphs. The efficiency of the transmission cycles of locally restricted genospecies - B. spielmanii and B. lusitaniae - on the other hand, appears to result in their predominance in sites, where their respective competent hosts occur. We observed that R0 varies around its threshold value of 1 depending on the genospecies-host association and differs for species even within host groups. This justifies and calls for distinguishing both, genospecies and host species, in further modelling studies in Central Europe.

Keywords: Tick-Host-Spirochaete interaction; Lyme disease; Next-Generation matrix; Ixodes ricinus; Borrelia burgdorferi; Elasticity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:411:y:2019:i:c:s0304380019303291

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108821

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