An individual-based model to assess the spatial and individual heterogeneity of Brucella melitensis transmission in Alpine ibex

Sébastien Lambert, Emmanuelle Gilot-Fromont, Carole Toïgo, Pascal Marchand, Elodie Petit, Bruno Garin-Bastuji, Dominique Gauthier, Jean-Michel Gaillard, Sophie Rossi and Anne Thébault

Ecological Modelling, 2020, vol. 425, issue C

Abstract: Heterogeneity of infectious disease transmission can be generated by individual differences in the frequency of contacts with susceptible individuals, in the ability to transmit the infectious agent or in the duration of infection, and by spatial variation in the distribution, density or movements of hosts. Identifying spatial and individual heterogeneity can help improving management strategies to eradicate or mitigate infectious diseases, by targeting the individuals or areas that are responsible for most transmissions. Individual-based models allow quantifying the respective role of these sources of heterogeneity by integrating potential mechanisms that generate heterogeneity and then by tracking transmissions caused by each infected individual. In this study, we provide an individual-based model of endemic brucellosis Brucella melitensis transmission in the population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) of the Bargy massif (France) by taking advantage of detailed information available on ibex population dynamics, behaviour, and habitat use, and on epidemiological surveys. This host-pathogen system is expected to be subject of both individual and spatial heterogeneity. We first estimated the transmission probabilities, hitherto unknown, of the two main transmission routes of the infection (i.e., exposure to infectious births/abortions and venereal transmission). Then, we quantified heterogeneity at both individual and spatial levels. We found that both transmission routes are not negligible to explain the data, and that there is a high amount of heterogeneity of the host-pathogen system at the individual level, with females generating around 90% of the new cases of brucellosis infection. Males transmit infection at a lesser extent but still play a non-negligible role because they move between subpopulations and thereby create opportunities for spreading the infection spatially by venereal transmission. Two particular socio-spatial units are hotspots of transmission, and act as sources of transmission for the other units. These results may have important implications for disease management strategies.

Keywords: Wildlife disease; Epidemiology; Disease ecology; Metapopulation; Superspreading; Transmission routes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380020300818
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:425:y:2020:i:c:s0304380020300818

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109009

Access Statistics for this article

Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath

More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().