Spread of Dutch elm disease in an urban forest

Nicolas Bajeux, Julien Arino, Stéphanie Portet and Richard Westwood

Ecological Modelling, 2020, vol. 438, issue C

Abstract: A complex network model for the spread of Dutch Elm Disease in an urban forest is formulated. American elms are the focus of the model. Each elm can be in one of five states, a combination of their life and epidemiological status. Each tree is also potentially a host to a population of elm bark beetles, the vectors of Dutch Elm Disease. The epidemiological dynamics of trees is governed by a stochastic process that takes into account the dispersal of spore-carrying beetles between trees and potential contacts between tree root systems. The model describes seasonal variations of beetle activity and population dynamics. Numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses of the model are carried out. In this introductory paper, we use data from the City of Winnipeg, where Dutch Elm Disease is prevalent, and focus on two neighbourhoods representative of a residential area and an area with urban parks.

Keywords: Network epidemic model; Plant pathogens; Hybrid model; Multi-scale model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:438:y:2020:i:c:s030438002030363x

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109293

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