An eco-epidemiological model supporting rational disease management of Xylella fastidiosa. An application to the outbreak in Apulia (Italy)

Gianni Gilioli, Anna Simonetto, Michele Colturato, Noelia Bazarra, José R. Fernández, Maria Grazia Naso, Boscia Donato, Domenico Bosco, Crescenza Dongiovanni, Andrea Maiorano, Olaf Mosbach-Schulz, Juan A. Navas Cortés and Maria Saponari

Ecological Modelling, 2023, vol. 476, issue C

Abstract: Knowledge on the dynamics of Xylella fastidiosa infection is an essential element for the effective management of new foci. In this study, we propose an Eco-epidemiological Model (XEM) describing the infection dynamics of X. fastidiosa outbreaks. XEM can be applied to design disease management strategies and compare their level of efficacy. XEM is a spatial explicit mechanistic model for short-range spread of X. fastidiosa considering: i) the growth of the bacterium in the host plant, ii) the acquisition of the pathogen by the vector and its transmission to host plants, iii) the vector population dynamics, iv) the dispersal of the vector. The model is parametrized based on data acquired on the spread of X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca in olive groves in the Apulia region. Four epidemiological scenarios were considered combining host susceptibility and vector abundance. Eight management strategies were compared testing several levels of vector control efficacy, plant cutting radius, time to detection and intervention. Simulation results showed that the abundance of the vector is the key factor determining the spread rate of the pathogen. Vector control efficacy and time to detection and intervention emerged as the key factors for an effective eradication strategy. XEM proved to be a suitable tool to support decision making for the drafting and management of emergency plans related to new outbreaks.

Keywords: Mechanistic model; Short-range spread; Olive trees; Bacterium; Pathosystems; Eradication strategies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380022003246
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:476:y:2023:i:c:s0304380022003246

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110226

Access Statistics for this article

Ecological Modelling is currently edited by Brian D. Fath

More articles in Ecological Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().