Assessing the impact of climate-induced heatwaves on habitat conditions for reservoir fish communities

Manuel Almeida and Pedro Coelho

Ecological Modelling, 2025, vol. 506, issue C

Abstract: Global climate change is intensifying the frequency, duration, and severity of heatwaves (HW), posing significant threats to aquatic ecosystems, particularly freshwater reservoirs. This study evaluates the impact of future climate-induced HW on the habitats of five fish species in a Portuguese reservoir using the CE-QUAL-W2 2D hydrodynamic model. Climate projections for the end of the century were based on three bias-adjusted EUROCORDEX simulations - MOHCHadGEM2-ES/RACMO22E, MOHCHadGEM2-ES/CCLM4–8–17, and MPI-MPI-ESM-LR/REMO2009 - all under the RCP 8.5 high-emission scenario. The model effectively simulated the dynamics of water temperature and dissolved oxygen within the reservoir. The results indicate that heatwave-induced temperature increases lead to significantly reduced dissolved oxygen levels. The most significant increase in reservoir water temperature was 9.2 °C (μ = 7.2; σ = 1.2) from July to August. Meanwhile, dissolved oxygen levels decreased by 2.1 mg/L (μ = -1.4; σ = 0.5) during the same period, thereby restricting the areas available for fish growth. These changes were primarily driven by increases in water temperature, especially when it exceeded 30ºC. In one of the scenarios the Barbus spp. habitat volume decreased 80 % for 7 days.

Keywords: Water quality model; Fish; Habitat; Reservoir; Climate change; Heatwave (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:506:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025001504

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111165

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