How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis

William Barnett and Marcelle Chauvet

Journal of Econometrics, 2011, vol. 161, issue 1, 6-23

Abstract: This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased-systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk-taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more contractionary monetary policy than indicated by simple-sum monetary data. Divisia monetary aggregate growth rates were generally lower than simple-sum aggregate growth rates in the period preceding the Great Moderation, and higher since the mid 1980s. Monetary policy was more contractionary than likely intended before the 2001 recession and more expansionary than likely intended during the subsequent recovery.

Keywords: Measurement; error; Monetary; aggregation; Divisia; index; Aggregation; Monetary; policy; Index; number; theory; Financial; crisis; Great; moderation; Federal; Reserve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (64)

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Working Paper: How Better Monetary Statistics Could Have Signaled the Financial Crisis (2010)
Working Paper: How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:161:y:2011:i:1:p:6-23

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