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Testing for a break in trend when the order of integration is unknown

Fabrizio Iacone, Stephen Leybourne () and Robert Taylor

Journal of Econometrics, 2013, vol. 176, issue 1, 30-45

Abstract: Harvey, Leybourne and Taylor [Harvey, D.I., Leybourne, S.J., Taylor, A.M.R. 2009. Simple, robust and powerful tests of the breaking trend hypothesis. Econometric Theory 25, 995–1029] develop a test for the presence of a broken linear trend at an unknown point in the sample whose size is asymptotically robust as to whether the (unknown) order of integration of the data is either zero or one. This test is not size controlled, however, when this order assumes fractional values; its asymptotic size can be either zero or one in such cases. In this paper we suggest a new test, based on a sup-Wald statistic, which is asymptotically size-robust across fractional values of the order of integration (including zero or one). We examine the asymptotic power of the test under a local trend break alternative. The finite sample properties of the test are also investigated.

Keywords: Trend break; Fractional integration; Sup-Wald statistic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:176:y:2013:i:1:p:30-45

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.03.008

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Journal of Econometrics is currently edited by T. Amemiya, A. R. Gallant, J. F. Geweke, C. Hsiao and P. M. Robinson

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