What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? Evidence from regressions on the dividend-price ratio

Jessica A. Wachter and Missaka Warusawitharana

Journal of Econometrics, 2015, vol. 186, issue 1, 74-93

Abstract: We examine the evidence on excess stock return predictability in a Bayesian setting in which the investor faces uncertainty about both the existence and strength of predictability. When we apply our methods to the dividend-price ratio, we find that even investors who are quite skeptical about the existence of predictability sharply modify their views in favor of predictability when confronted by the historical time series of returns and predictor variables. Correctly taking into account the stochastic properties of the regressor has a dramatic impact on inference, particularly over the 2000–2005 period.

Keywords: Return predictability; Bayesian statistics; Model uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C22 G11 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Working Paper: What is the Chance that the Equity Premium Varies over Time? Evidence from Regressions on the Dividend-Price Ratio (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:186:y:2015:i:1:p:74-93

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.05.018

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