The treatment-effect estimation: A case study of the 2008 economic stimulus package of China

Min Ouyang and Yulei Peng

Journal of Econometrics, 2015, vol. 188, issue 2, 545-557

Abstract: Researchers often face the challenge of estimating the counterfactuals to evaluate the treatment effects. Hsiao et al. (2012) propose a method that offers more flexibilities by allowing the influence of the unobservable latent factors to vary cross-section. This paper relaxes the linear conditional mean assumption in their method by extending it to a semi-parametric setting. The asymptotic distribution properties of the average treatment effect estimator is derived and studied. The semi-parametric model and the Hsiao et al. (2012) are both applied to study the macroeconomic effect of the 2008 Chinese Economic Stimulus Program. The estimation results show the fiscal stimulus plan had raised the annual real GDP growth in China by about 3.2%, but only temporarily. These results are robust to linear setting, semiparametric setting, and various control group selections. The temporary boost in economic activities of the stimulus plan is also evident in the estimation of other economic indicators such as real investment, real consumption, real export, and real import.

Keywords: Treatment effects; Stationary data; 2008 fiscal stimulus plan of China; Parametric estimation; Semi-parametric estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 H22 H73 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (65)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030440761500086X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:188:y:2015:i:2:p:545-557

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.03.017

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Econometrics is currently edited by T. Amemiya, A. R. Gallant, J. F. Geweke, C. Hsiao and P. M. Robinson

More articles in Journal of Econometrics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().