Inference related to common breaks in a multivariate system with joined segmented trends with applications to global and hemispheric temperatures

Dukpa Kim (), Tatsushi Oka, Francisco Estrada and Pierre Perron

Journal of Econometrics, 2020, vol. 214, issue 1, 130-152

Abstract: What transpires from recent research is that temperatures and radiative forcing seem to be characterized by a linear trend with two changes in the rate of growth. The first occurs in the early 60s and indicates a very large increase in the rate of growth of both temperature and radiative forcing series. This was termed as the “onset of sustained global warming”. The second is related to the more recent so-called hiatus period, which suggests that temperatures and total radiative forcing have increased less rapidly since the mid-90s compared to the larger rate of increase from 1960 to 1990. There are two issues that remain unresolved. The first is whether the breaks in the slope of the trend functions of temperatures and radiative forcing are common. This is important because common breaks coupled with the basic science of climate change would strongly suggest a causal effect from anthropogenic factors to temperatures. The second issue relates to establishing formally via a proper testing procedure that takes into account the noise in the series, whether there was indeed a ‘hiatus period’ for temperatures since the mid 90s. This is important because such a test would counter the widely held view that the hiatus is the product of natural internal variability. Our paper provides tests related to both issues. The results show that the breaks in temperatures and radiative forcing are common and that the hiatus is characterized by a significant decrease in their rate of growth. The statistical results are of independent interest and applicable more generally.

Keywords: Multiple breaks; Common breaks; Multivariate regressions; Joined segmented trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407619301113
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Inference Related to Common Breaks in a Multivariate System with Joined Segmented Trends with Applications to Global and Hemispheric Temperatures (2018)
Working Paper: Inference Related to Common Breaks in a Multivariate System with Joined Segmented Trends with Applications to Global and Hemispheric Temperatures (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:214:y:2020:i:1:p:130-152

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.008

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Econometrics is currently edited by T. Amemiya, A. R. Gallant, J. F. Geweke, C. Hsiao and P. M. Robinson

More articles in Journal of Econometrics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().