# Augmented factor models with applications to validating market risk factors and forecasting bond risk premia

*Jianqing Fan*,
*Yuan Ke* and
*Yuan Liao*

*Journal of Econometrics*, 2021, vol. 222, issue 1, 269-294

**Abstract:**
We study factor models augmented by observed covariates that have explanatory powers on the unknown factors. In financial factor models, the unknown factors can be reasonably well explained by a few observable proxies, such as the Fama–French factors. In diffusion index forecasts, identified factors are strongly related to several directly measurable economic variables such as consumption-wealth variable, financial ratios, and term spread. With those covariates, both the factors and loadings are identifiable up to a rotation matrix even only with a finite dimension. To incorporate the explanatory power of these covariates, we propose a smoothed or projected principal component analysis (PCA): (i) regress the data onto the observed covariates, and (ii) take the principal components of the fitted data to estimate the loadings and factors. This allows us to more accurately estimate the percentage of both explained and unexplained components in factors and thus to assess the explanatory power of covariates. We show that both the estimated factors and loadings can be estimated with improved rates of convergence compared to the benchmark method. The degree of improvement depends on the strength of the signals, representing the explanatory power of the covariates on the factors. The proposed estimator is robust to possibly heavy-tailed distributions. We apply the model to forecast US bond risk premia, and find that the observed macroeconomic characteristics contain strong explanatory powers of the factors. The gain of forecast is more substantial when the characteristics are incorporated to estimate the common factors than directly used for forecasts.

**Keywords:** Heavy tails; Forecasts; Principal components; Identification (search for similar items in EconPapers)

**JEL-codes:** C38 C58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)

**Date:** 2021

**References:** View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc

**Citations:** View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

**Downloads:** (external link)

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407620301925

Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

**Related works:**

Working Paper: Augmented Factor Models with Applications to Validating Market Risk Factors and Forecasting Bond Risk Premia (2018)

This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

**Export reference:** BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text

**Persistent link:** https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:222:y:2021:i:1:p:269-294

**DOI:** 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.002

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Econometrics is currently edited by *T. Amemiya*, *A. R. Gallant*, *J. F. Geweke*, *C. Hsiao* and *P. M. Robinson*

More articles in Journal of Econometrics from Elsevier

Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().