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Tail risk and return predictability for the Japanese equity market

Torben Andersen (), Viktor Todorov and Masato Ubukata

Journal of Econometrics, 2021, vol. 222, issue 1, 344-363

Abstract: This paper studies the predictability of the Japanese equity market, focusing on the forecasting power of nonparametric volatility and tail risk measures obtained from options data on the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 market indices. The Japanese market is notoriously difficult to forecast using standard predictive indicators. We confirm that country-specific regressions for Japan – contrary to existing evidence for other national equity indices – produce insignificant predictability patterns. However, we also find that the U.S. option-implied tail risk measure provides significant forecast power both for the dollar–yen exchange rate and the Japanese excess returns, especially when measured in U.S. dollars. Thus, the dollar-denominated Japanese returns are, in fact, predictable through the identical mechanism as for other equity market indices, suggesting a high degree of global integration for the Japanese financial market.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.005

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Journal of Econometrics is currently edited by T. Amemiya, A. R. Gallant, J. F. Geweke, C. Hsiao and P. M. Robinson

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:222:y:2021:i:1:p:344-363