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Dynamic decisions under subjective expectations: A structural analysis

Yonghong An, Yingyao Hu and Ruli Xiao

Journal of Econometrics, 2021, vol. 222, issue 1, 645-675

Abstract: We study dynamic discrete choice models without assuming rational expectations. Agents’ beliefs about state transitions are subjective, unknown, and may differ from their objective counterparts. We show that agents’ preferences and subjective beliefs are identified in both finite and infinite horizon models. We estimate the model primitives via maximum likelihood estimation and demonstrate the good performance of the estimator by Monte Carlo experiments. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, we illustrate our method in an analysis of women’s labor participation. We find that workers do not hold rational expectations about income transitions.

Keywords: Dynamic discrete choice models; Subjective beliefs; Rational expectations; Nonparametric identification; Estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C25 C61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.046

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Journal of Econometrics is currently edited by T. Amemiya, A. R. Gallant, J. F. Geweke, C. Hsiao and P. M. Robinson

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