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Constrained estimation using penalization and MCMC

A. Ronald Gallant, Han Hong, Michael Leung and Jessie Li

Journal of Econometrics, 2022, vol. 228, issue 1, 85-106

Abstract: We study inference for parameters defined by either classical extremum estimators or Laplace-type estimators subject to general nonlinear constraints on the parameters. We show that running MCMC on the penalized version of the problem offers a computationally attractive alternative to solving the original constrained optimization problem. Bayesian credible intervals are asymptotically valid confidence intervals in a pointwise sense, providing exact asymptotic coverage for general functions of the parameters. We allow for nonadaptive and adaptive penalizations using the ℓp for p⩾1 penalty functions. These methods are motivated by and include as special cases model selection and shrinkage methods such as the LASSO and its Bayesian and adaptive versions. A simulation study validates the theoretical results. We also provide an empirical application on estimating the joint density of U.S. real consumption and asset returns subject to Euler equation constraints in a CRRA asset pricing model.

Keywords: Penalized estimation; MCMC; Laplace-type estimators; Bayesian LASSO (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C11 C13 C15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:228:y:2022:i:1:p:85-106

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.02.004

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Journal of Econometrics is currently edited by T. Amemiya, A. R. Gallant, J. F. Geweke, C. Hsiao and P. M. Robinson

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