Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting?

Michael Neugart and Johannes Rode

European Economic Review, 2021, vol. 133, issue C

Abstract: We explore whether retrospective voting is related to voters’ democratic experience. To this end, we compare the voting behavior in West Germany to the voting behavior in the formerly non-democratic East Germany after a disaster relief program addressing a flood in 2013. Our analysis reveals a 2.2% (or 0.9 percentage points) increase in the vote share for the incumbent party in the flooded municipalities in the East compared to the West. Analyzing an earlier flood, variation of democratic experience within East Germany, and a panel survey provides further evidence that less democratically experienced voters are easier prey to pre-election policies.

Keywords: Retrospective voting; Natural disaster; Democratic experience; Relief program (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D78 H84 R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting? (2021)
Working Paper: Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting? (2021)
Working Paper: Voting after a Major Flood: Is there a Link between Democratic Experience and Retrospective Voting? (2019)
Working Paper: Voting after a major flood: Is there a link between democratic experience and retrospective voting? (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121000180

DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103665

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