Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions
Markus Eyting and
European Economic Review, 2021, vol. 135, issue C
We propose a simple, incentive compatible procedure based on binarized linear scoring rules to elicit beliefs about real-valued outcomes - multiple point predictions. Simultaneously eliciting multiple point predictions with linear incentives reveals the subjective probability distribution without pre-defined intervals or probabilistic statements. We show that the approach is theoretically as robust as existing methods, while adapting flexibly to different beliefs. In a laboratory experiment, we compare our procedure to the standard approach of eliciting discrete probabilities on pre-defined intervals. We find that elicitation with multiple point predictions is faster, perceived as less difficult and more consistent with a subsequent decision. We further find that multiple point predictions are more accurate if beliefs vary between participants. Finally, we provide experimental evidence that pre-defined intervals anchor reports.
Keywords: Elicitation of subjective expectations; Partial identification; Quantiles; Experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:135:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121000532
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