Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: Insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe
Carlo Fezzi and
European Economic Review, 2021, vol. 139, issue C
This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real-time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an illustration, we estimate the GDP loss caused by COVID-19 in twelve European countries during the first wave of the pandemic. Our results are almost indistinguishable from the official statistics during the first two quarters of 2020 (the correlation coefficient is 0.98) and are validated by several robustness tests. We provide estimates that are more chronologically disaggregated and up-to-date than standard macroeconomic indicators and, therefore, can provide timely information for policy evaluation in time of crisis. Our results show that pursuing “herd immunity” did not shelter from the harmful economic impacts of the first wave of the pandemic. They also suggest that coordinating policies internationally is fundamental for minimizing spillover effects from non-pharmaceutical interventions across countries.
Keywords: COVID-19; Economic impact; Mortality; Electricity demand; Real-time indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C51 E01 L94 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:139:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121002178
Access Statistics for this article
European Economic Review is currently edited by T.S. Eicher, A. Imrohoroglu, E. Leeper, J. Oechssler and M. Pesendorfer
More articles in European Economic Review from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().