Heterogeneity of beliefs and information rigidity in the crude oil market: Evidence from survey data

Robert Czudaj

European Economic Review, 2022, vol. 143, issue C

Abstract: This paper assesses information contained in the micro dataset of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters regarding quarterly Brent crude oil price forecasts. We examine the expectations building mechanism by referring to the processing of information and confirm the presence of information rigidity within the crude oil market. However, our findings also show that simple models of imperfect information considered in the literature are insufficient to explain the behavior of professional forecasters. We provide additional stylized facts which are helpful for designing more elaborate imperfect information models.

Keywords: Crude oil; Disagreement; Expectations; Heterogeneity; Information rigidity; Survey data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 D84 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Heterogeneity of Beliefs and Information Rigidity in the Crude Oil Market: Evidence from Survey Data (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:143:y:2022:i:c:s0014292122000071

DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104041

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