Multicriteria estimation of probabilities on basis of expert non-numeric, non-exact and non-complete knowledge

Nikolai Hovanov, Maria Yudaeva and Kirill Hovanov

European Journal of Operational Research, 2009, vol. 195, issue 3, 857-863

Abstract: A new method of alternatives' probabilities estimation under deficiency of expert numeric information (obtained from different sources) is proposed. The method is based on the Bayesian model of uncertainty randomization. Additional non-numeric, non-exact, and non-complete expert knowledge (NNN-knowledge, NNN-information) is used for final estimation of the alternatives' probabilities. An illustrative example demonstrates the proposed method application to forecasting of oil shares price with the use of NNN-information obtained from different experts (investment firms).

Keywords: Non-numeric; information; (knowledge); Multiple; criteria; analysis; Randomization; of; uncertainty; Random; probabilities; and; weights (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:195:y:2009:i:3:p:857-863

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