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Selection of contract suppliers under price and demand uncertainty in a dynamic market

Shanling Li, Alper Murat and Wanzhen Huang

European Journal of Operational Research, 2009, vol. 198, issue 3, 830-847

Abstract: In this paper, we consider a supply contracting problem in which the buyer firm faces non-stationary stochastic price and demand. First, we derive analytical results to compare two pure strategies: (i) periodically purchasing from the spot market; and (ii) signing a long-term contract with a single supplier. The results from the pure strategies show that the selection of suppliers can be complicated by many parameters, and is particularly affected by price uncertainty. We then develop a stochastic dynamic programming model to incorporate mixed strategies, purchasing commitments and contract cancellations. Computational results show that increases in price (demand) uncertainty favor long-term (short-term) suppliers. By examining the two-way interactions of contract factors (price, demand, purchasing bounds, learning and technology effect, salvage values and contract cancellation), both intuitive and non-intuitive managerial insights in outsourcing strategies are derived.

Keywords: Supply; chain; contracts; Stochastic; dynamic; programming; Purchasing; Supplier; selection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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