Outranking under uncertainty using scenarios

Ian N. Durbach

European Journal of Operational Research, 2014, vol. 232, issue 1, 98-108

Abstract: This paper considers the use of scenarios to treat uncertain attribute evaluations in the outranking methods. The scenario-based approach allows the decision maker to think deterministically about the problem by attaching causal links to a small number of potential outcomes, instead of using probability distributions. The scenario approach can be expressed as a simplified version of the comprehensive but practically complex “distributive” outranking method of d’Avignon and Vincke. Using a scenario approach has distinct practical advantages, but also presents the inherent danger that meaningful information is ignored. The extent of this danger is assessed using a simulation experiment, where it is found to be of a magnitude that is non-trivial but still potentially acceptable for certain decision contexts.

Keywords: Decision analysis; Multi-criteria; Outranking; Uncertainty; Scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:232:y:2014:i:1:p:98-108

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2013.06.041

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