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Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks

Fran Ackermann, Susan Howick, John Quigley, Lesley Walls and Tom Houghton

European Journal of Operational Research, 2014, vol. 238, issue 1, 290-299

Abstract: As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research.

Keywords: Problem structuring; Risk analysis; Group decision making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:238:y:2014:i:1:p:290-299

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.03.035

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European Journal of Operational Research is currently edited by Roman Slowinski, Jesus Artalejo, Jean-Charles. Billaut, Robert Dyson and Lorenzo Peccati

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