Cure events in default prediction

Marcus Wolter and Daniel Rösch

European Journal of Operational Research, 2014, vol. 238, issue 3, 846-857

Abstract: This paper evaluates the resurrection event regarding defaulted firms and incorporates observable cure events in the default prediction of SME. Due to the additional cure-related observable data, a completely new information set is applied to predict individual default and cure events. This is a new approach in credit risk that, to our knowledge, has not been followed yet. Different firm-specific and macroeconomic default and cure-event-influencing risk drivers are identified. The significant variables allow a firm-specific default risk evaluation combined with an individual risk reducing cure probability. The identification and incorporation of cure-relevant factors in the default risk framework enable lenders to support the complete resurrection of a firm in the case of its default and hence reduce the default risk itself. The estimations are developed with a database that contains 5930 mostly small and medium-sized German firms and a total of more than 23000 financial statements over a time horizon from January 2002 to December 2007. Due to the significant influence on the default risk probability as well as the bank’s possible profit prospects concerning a cured firm, it seems essential for risk management to incorporate the additional cure information into credit risk evaluation.

Keywords: Finance; Risk analysis; Risk management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:238:y:2014:i:3:p:846-857

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.04.046

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