EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

An empirical comparison of classification algorithms for mortgage default prediction: evidence from a distressed mortgage market

Trevor Fitzpatrick and Christophe Mues

European Journal of Operational Research, 2016, vol. 249, issue 2, 427-439

Abstract: This paper evaluates the performance of a number of modelling approaches for future mortgage default status. Boosted regression trees, random forests, penalised linear and semi-parametric logistic regression models are applied to four portfolios of over 300,000 Irish owner-occupier mortgages. The main findings are that the selected approaches have varying degrees of predictive power and that boosted regression trees significantly outperform logistic regression. This suggests that boosted regression trees can be a useful addition to the current toolkit for mortgage credit risk assessment by banks and regulators.

Keywords: Boosting; Random forests; Semi-parametric models; Mortgages; Credit scoring (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221715008383
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:249:y:2016:i:2:p:427-439

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.09.014

Access Statistics for this article

European Journal of Operational Research is currently edited by Roman Slowinski, Jesus Artalejo, Jean-Charles. Billaut, Robert Dyson and Lorenzo Peccati

More articles in European Journal of Operational Research from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:249:y:2016:i:2:p:427-439