The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality: A system dynamics approach to the US–Mexican transborder regionAuthor-Name: Duran-Encalada, J.A

A. Paucar-Caceres, E.R. Bandala and G.H. Wright

European Journal of Operational Research, 2017, vol. 256, issue 2, 567-581

Abstract: The potential impacts of Global Climate Change (GCC) in zones where water is scarce, such as along the US–Mexico border is, and will continue to be, a key concern for the future sustainability of humanity. This paper estimates the variation in quality/quantity water due to climate change and assesses its impact on community development in the US–Mexico border region of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Water Basin. To estimate variation in different water quality parameters, we use a conservative model with most probable scenarios for temperature/precipitation produced by the International Panel on Climate Change. We propose a system dynamics model to understand the complex interaction of factors governing the quantity/quality of water and their effects on social and economic conditions. The model simulates, for a 70-year period, policies and decisions that have the potential to improve conditions and prevent risks that may lead to social unrest and hinder economic development.

Keywords: System dynamics; Sustainability; Water management; Climate change; Environment management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:256:y:2017:i:2:p:567-581

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.016

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