Bayesian failure-rate modeling and preventive maintenance optimization

Dmitriy Belyi, Elmira Popova, David P. Morton and Paul Damien

European Journal of Operational Research, 2017, vol. 262, issue 3, 1085-1093

Abstract: New results are derived for the optimal preventive maintenance schedule of a single item over a finite horizon, based on Bayesian models of a failure rate function. Two types of failure rate functions—increasing and bathtub shapes—are considered. For both cases, optimality conditions and efficient algorithms to find an optimal maintenance schedule are given. A Bayesian parametric model for bathtub-shaped failure rate functions is used, while the class of increasing failure rate functions are tackled by an extended gamma process. We illustrate both approaches using real failure time data from the South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company in Bay City, Texas.

Keywords: Bayesian nonparametrics; Stochastic optimization; Maintenance optimization; Markov chain Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:262:y:2017:i:3:p:1085-1093

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.04.019

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